Recently I was travelling from Florida to New York on a nice new Airbus A320. During the flight I was marveling at the amazing piece of technology that was allowing me to travel hundreds of miles. I thought a lot about how some of the greatest minds of the past would have never conceived of this contraption. In 1895, Lord Kelvin, a world renowned engineer and scientist, stated:
“Heavier than air flying machines are impossible.” – Lord Kelvin
Within a decade the first heavier than air machine took to the skies in Kitty Hawk.
This Airbus though, is so vastly complex. So many parts and technological components go into creating one. It made me think about “What if I was teleported back 1000 years ago? Could I help society within my lifetime rebuild this?”
Me: “So I’m from 1000 years in the future and I know lots of things from the future”
Ancient Dude: “Oh great, so share with us things you actually know how to recreate!”
Me: “Well phones can be recreated by… or uh – and airplane is simply uhm…”
Ancient Dude: “…”
Me: “Germs are a thing?”
Okay so – but that’s me. We need to take back someone super smart! What if – we took back the Einstein of Airplane Engineers! I mean surely that would help. That engineer would know a lot about how an airplane flies, but what about all the computer technology? This is 1000 years ago after-all, you’d have to build a computer from the ground up. You’d have to create computer language. Heck, how are you going to make a transistor when you have no idea how to mine the resources to make that stuff. Speaking of mining… how in the world do you develop steel alloys? Think about all the technology required to mine and create steel alone. All the different rivets, designing airplane seats, wheels that can withstand the weight/forces, and how do you recreate shitty airplane food?
That’s when I had the realization – to build this airplane – there is no one. Not one single person on the planet you could bring back and even come close to recreating this airplane. We live in a world only possible because of all the millions of people before us that have pushed us forward.
So what does one do with this knowledge – and why does it matter? One of the biggest reasons people underestimate exponential growth of technology is the exact problem of the airplane. Not any person on earth understands all the elements of their field. A computer scientist can’t understand the development of code, transistors, physics, and so on all at a single time. This example – in part – proves that growth happens because of all the growth before it. It builds on itself. It is compounding interest. The gains of our ancestors compound upon themselves over time to break us through barriers.
This is why experts in a field seem to be proven wrong over time. They can only see the small sliver of knowledge in which they know a profound more than anyone else. Lord Kelvin may have known about aerodynamics of air flight more than any person on earth, but imagine yourself as an ant on a beach. You may understand all the individual grains of sand around you better than any other being. However – there is such a vast of amount of grains of sand you don’t have any idea exist. So many variations in size, color, and shape. As an ant, like Lord Kelvin, you’d maybe come to a conclusion about the larger world of sand because of your deep understanding of the sand surrounding you.
Some day, no doubt, some one will invent a flying machine that one will be able to navigate without having to have a balloon attachment. But the day is a long way off when we shall see human beings soaring around like birds – Lord Kelvin (10 years later, we were flying around like birds..)
This is why Science Fiction writers seem to predict the future almost better than experts, because they only allow themselves to imagine what is possible. Not just what is practical. In my next blog post we will explore the relationship of compounding growth in our world a bit more, but let me leave you with this. In your own life, don’t let the experts tell you what is possible. We know the future is filled with the impossible. In the short term; the practical-minded laugh at their perceived belief of you achieving the impossible. The future ultimately proves you laugh at them.
The Breakthrough 